Gusii and Maasai Regions Alone , Push Uhuru to 54% as Raila Drops to 41.3%

Having observed opinion polls or frequentist statistics locally and internationally, they are so inaccurate, non representive though called representive. Different polls on a similar situation never concur or collaborate. We are entitled to our opinions but facts – nay. Assuming that one person represents views of others in a particular region is abnoxious. The only way they can reliable is by looking at tendencies of the formally elected representatives.
Bayesian statistics are more effective and reliable. This is a field of statistics named for Thomas Bayes , is a theory which the evidence about the true state of the World is expressed in terms of ‘degrees of belief’ known as the Bayesian probabilities.
If we apply this in determining the recent defections, we look back at similar ones since our political pluralism and elections’ results, we are able to predict the future elections. Our first multiparty elections witnessed a total of thirteen defections where eight defectees were re-elected. Those from either government or opposition strong holds lost while others from the swing vote regions bounced back. What does that mean? The recent defectors have either written their political obituaries or asserted their authority.
It’s only one MP Hon Rege who ditched ODM and though popular on the ground, he might follow Hon Raphael Tuju. This is due to the strength of ODM in Luo Nyanza.
The Coast politicians had declared support for the government earlier than the last rally. This led to the appointment of Kazungu Kambi, mining CS subsequenting a by election which Jubilee candidate lost.
Bayesian probabilities can gauge the effect of the defections due to the availability of the requisite samples for the by-election and the 2013 general elections. If we compute the two – what both Cord and Jubilee presidential results in 2013 and what their respective candidates bagged during the by-election. My reasoning is informed by the utturances of the two camps during the campaigning period. The electrorete was convinced that their votes were for either president Uhuru or the former premier Raila Odinga more than the candidates themselves.
In March 2013, Uhuru got 5587 votes against Raila’s 28821 or 15.5% and 78.05% respectively. During 7th March 2016 by-election , William Mtengo garnerd 15582 against Jubilee’s Philip Charo’s 9243 or 58.02% and 34.4% respectively.
This translates to a drop of 20.03 percentage points and a rise of 15.4 respectively. If elections were held today that is what would happen in swing vote regions. Worse still Cord hemorrhage is directly transfusing their ” Nixon enemies list”.
The Coast, Western, Maasai land and Gusii land are considered to be the swing vote regions. The same regions had several defections. Kamba land is warming up to join the list if not government unless their own is given the Cord flag.
Maasai land and Gusii region leaders have joined government and we can apply Bayesian statistics in our predictions. The counties are Narok, Kajiado, Kisii and Nyamira where Raila got 57.25% against Uhuru’s 38.9% on average from the regions. Defections have now changed everything. Raila, going by the percentages given earlier would bag 37.22%. Similarly, Uhuru would rise to 54.3% .The two communities have a combined population of 6.5% – Kisii 5% and Maasai 1.5%. Raila has subsequently lost 2.4% as Uhuru gains 3.5%. Translating to 54% and 41.3 for Raila Odinga. The two leaders had 50.51% and 43.7% respectively in 2013. A drop of 2.4 and a gain of 3.5 percentage points is the lost and gained votes from the two communities on the national tally due to the defections. Jubilee continue eating into Cord strongholds either transforming into their own or swing vote regions.

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