1)Huge Difference in Opinion Polls- Though Kenyan Opinion Polls are not perfect, all pollsters, including those linked to Raila all show a huge gap between Uhuru and Raila.
2) Principal Factor- All Principals in NASA have all shown that they have absolutely no confidence in Raila winning. Isaac Ruto has already abandoned the sinking ship. Weta is struggling to be Senator. Kalonzo could not wait to be DP, so he had to forcefully and dictatorially impose his son as EALA MP, yet as DP he would have powers to give him much more lucrative posts.
3) Chief Advisors like Prof Nyong’o, and Orengo have all taken off to fight for County Jobs- yet in Raila’s Presidency, they would be top of the world in very lucrative positions
4) History: History shows that Raila’s legendary blunders that pop up just before elections are now coming in droves. His foot in mouth disease is now in full blast.
5) Common Sense: Checking the above factors- you must have total deficiency in common sense to expect Raila to win