US watu Raila’s presidency



(a) Summary and Introduction. The 2017 general election is just a few months away. While a Raila Odinga victory is highly unlikely, Embassy NAIROBI, has compiled the following report, in the event of an improbable win. We can anticipate mid to long term instability, severe unrest and a massive break down of law and order. Celebratory violence from Luos (Odinga’s ethnic group) who have felt excluded from power since independence , will aggressively assert their newfound strength, especially in the first few months of the new administration, possibly provoking considerable social anarchy, rather than creating an environment for inter -ethnic cooperation and reconciliation. Post Nairobi, expects further balkanization of various ethnic communities in Kenya that could precipitate a collapse of the Nation. This report includes an ECONOMIC, MILITARY, and a SOCIAL-POLITICAL scenario in the unlikely event of a Raila Odinga victory.
End Summary.

Economic Fallout.
(b) We project an internal breakdown of key segments of the Kenyan economy. The dissent will come from business owners, land owners and foreign investors due to high levels of corruption that will characterize the new administration, right from its infancy. We expect a sharp decline in FDI’s, due to capital flight, and the lack of confidence from foreign investors.

This in turn will cause massive liquidity problems after wealthy Kenyans withdraw money from banks causing a cash crunch. This is especially true with regards to Kikuyu and Asian communities, since they own major business interests in Kenya, and would be wary of the wealth redistribution economic message from the Odinga campaign. We project a severe economic slowdown and the unpredictability of the Kenyan economy, leading to hyper inflation, and the collapse of the Kenya shilling. The Nation’s nascent oil extraction industry will grind down to a halt. Tullow oil and other oil majors currently prospecting for oil will pull out of Kenya with an insurgency raging in North Western Kenya, reminiscent to the Niger delta in Nigeria, funded by local leaders affiliated to the NASA coalition.

Military Fallout.

(b) Upsurge in terror related activities in Kenya from Somalia after a withdrawal of Kenyan forces, which is Odinga’s stated goal. We are deeply thankful to our Kenyan partners for their efforts, and the sacrifices of her sons and daughters serving with AMISOM in Somalia. A hasty withdrawal will have huge ramifications of epic proportions. An Odinga victory will also undermine USG and GoK military cooperation that has been existence since 1963. Of concern, is a corrupt element within his campaign, especially Jimmy Wanjigi, who has been mentioned in various scandals involving shadowy Chinese elements, in procuring security related hardware, and remains banned from entry into the United States. KDF is undertaking a modernization program of its military hardware with our assistance, through the Foreign Military Program, and this could be severely jeopardized, affecting troop readiness and the USG’s supported expedition in Somalia. We will continue to encourage President Kenyatta to stay the cause until the mission is accomplished. We stand shoulder to shoulder with KDF and
AMISOM’s continued operations in Somalia to pacify Juba land in Southern

Social-Political Breakdown.

(c) Instability and insurrection will precipitate in areas populated by Muslims, from North Eastern Kenya to the Coast region due to sharia law implementation. Odinga signed an MOU with a section of hard-line Muslim leaders to implement this law, and the agreement is still in effect. Further to this, Kenya will be a regional hub for drug trafficking. His campaign is financed by a major Indian Ocean criminal enterprise stretching from Pakistan to Mombasa, Kenya. Links to terrorism cannot be ruled out. Politicians from Mombasa are known to be major players in the narcotics trade. Reports indicate they are linked to the Haqqani Criminal Enterprise in the Afghan/ Pakistan tribal areas.
We also anticipate Zimbabwe style land invasions and occupations especially in
Laikipia, at the white owned/ leased wildlife sanctuaries and ranches. The United Kingdom is planning military contingencies, to protect their overseas citizens. We also see an upsurge in cattle rustling and banditry in Kenya’s frontier provinces, with outright support from local NASA legislators, with the sole aim of grabbing the large tracts of land in the adjacent areas. The East African region will experience bouts of instability due to breakdown of transportation, supply chains and infrastructure in the vital northern corridor.
South Sudan will be particularly affected, as the Nation relies heavily on the Port of Mombasa.

(d) An Odinga victory would signify a CLEAR and PRESENT danger to Kenya and the Horn of Africa AOR, by emboldening non state actors with nefarious intentions (Al- Shabaab/Al-Qaida, large criminal organization, pirates and wildlife traffickers), and will accelerate proliferation of small arms and assault weapons in an already volatile region.

RSO Post-Nairobi is coordinating with our listening post at the AFRICOM HQ’s- Kelly Barracks, Stuttgart, Germany, to monitor NASA party communications. We are also coordinating with the Combined Joint Task Force Horn of Africa (CJTFHOA) at Camp Lemonier, Djibouti, for surveillance and regular briefings.

Post- Nairobi, recommends quiet support for the incumbent (status quo) by encouraging a robust voter education program and a high Jubilee voter turnout.

An Odinga Victory will not align with USG strategic interests in Kenya and the wider East Africa region, and our objectives in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Post-Nairobi has put a strong post-election contingency team to deal with any crisis that might erupt especially from Mr. Odinga’s supporters, after he suffers a humiliating defeat. Our in house polling projects a strong showing by the President’s party with a first round victory of 53.7%.

Our travel advisory updated on6 April 2017 remains in effect through31 August 2017.

CONCLUSION: A Raila Odinga administration will not fit in with Trump Administration‘s strategic interests in the Horn of Africa region, and USG’s economic interests in East Africa. Furthermore, President Kenyatta’s administration has been a reliable partner in the Global war on Terror, and a valued ally in a volatile and explosive region. The United States cannot afford to gamble with an unpredictable leader, who could re-initiate their dealings with the Russian bloc or other nations that do not share our values.


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