A friend asked what happens next, immediately after the dismissal of Raila’s petition. Will we be treated to…
1. A strongly-worded presser; accusing the judiciary of bias but one that grudgingly wishes Uhuruto good luck? Or
2. A bitter press conference rejecting the ruling and calling Luos to the streets, to demand justice?
Well, I think and hope the Supreme Court is Raila’s dignified exit strategy. Losing the case, after presenting a lorry of evidence, will pit his supporters against the judiciary. This will move Uhuruto from computer generated leaders to Supreme Court appointees. Raila will remain a heroic victim, the savor the corrupt system rejected. The greatest statesman to walk our land. That would be the worst case scenario.
But as Mozzie (Neal’s con friend in the White Collar Series) said, there is always a worst case scenario behind every worst case scenario. In other words, what if there is no exit strategy and going to court was just an excuse to send innocent Luo youths to the streets thereafter?
What should we expect…how will that work? Here is how..
1. Sending supporters to the streets, after failing to prove a case at the court, will mean Rao has gone suicidal politically speaking. He’d have given up on legacy and ready to die and sacrifice as many of his supporters as he can to get power…. But will he get enough suicidal supporters to cheer him?
2. Yes, as long as there are disillusioned young Luos in Kibera, Mathare and Kondele…Rao will always get his street demos. But what will he get from unpopularly violent demos, you ask? Well…
3. Religious leaders and the civil society will put pressure on Uhuruto to dialogue Rao and incorporate him in government to end the ‘violence and loss of lives’. Should Uhuruto give in to such calls….
4. Rao and Co will have gotten themselves a nusu mkate government…something they’ve been dreaming of since 2013…but what if Uhuruto ignore him and crash the violent protesters instead? Rao might put himself on arms way….go down as a political martyr… Something that…
5. Would leave the Luo nation not only bitter but too suicidal to describe.
NOTE: Things are likely to take the first route but, just in case they don’t, above is my worst case scenario.