THE GREAT UNRAVELLING: THE DOOMSDAY SCENARIO. KENYA ON THE EDGE OF A PRECIPICE

EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS ecfr.eu

Report by the EU Intelligence and Situational Centre.

Veteran Kenyan opposition Chief Raila Odinga, is set to face President Uhuru Kenyatta, in a repeat of last month‟s presidential election, which was invalidated by the country‟s Supreme Court. He was chided by western observers for crying foul when the election results were announced, only to be vindicated by the nation‟s Supreme Court, which ruled that President Kenyatta was not validly elected. Mr. Odinga has spent most of his political career in the opposition benches, while running for the Presidency in four occasions. Mr. Odinga was sent to East Germany by his father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, (Kenya‟s first Vice President), for further studies. He attended Herder Institut, where he attained a certificate in spoken German language. This was the first step for any foreign students who wished to live and study in East Germany. He was a poor student, and it took him over four years to learn the language. He was later enrolled at the Technical School of Magdenburg. However this was just a cover, since he had been recruited for Marxist indoctrination by the communist East Germans, who saw him and his connections back home, as a useful asset in the wider scheme of their ideological influence in Africa. His father Jaramogi had been in contact with the Russian Soviet Union way before independence, and they sent him arms to destabilize and orchestrate a coup. The plot was uncovered and Jaramogi Odinga was exiled to political cold until the advert of multiparty politics in 1990. The following is a list of young Raila‟s activities in East Germany, as recalled by one of his instructors, a former Stasi agent, working under the direct authority of Markus Wolfe, the head of the foreign intelligence section. According to declassified East German intelligence information, Raila Odinga was used by the GDR intelligence to spy on West Germany, unknowingly. Raila was perpetually broke in East German and hence resorted to smuggling. He was the head of a drug smuggling ring out of East Germany to West Germany, and vice versa. He brought in western cigarette brands and marijuana, for his East German handlers, through check point Charlie, the best-known Berlin Wall crossing point between East Berlin and West Berlin during the cold war. Since he was enrolled at the technical school in Magdeburg, Raila never showed up for any classes. According to information from his file, recovered by the unified nation‟s Federal Intelligence Service (BND), after reunification, Raila was only trained as a Lada( brand of cars manufactured by the Russian car manufacturer AvtoVAZ) vehicle mechanic for nine months. For rest of his time, the East German Stasi agents (former East German Secret police), were busy indoctrinating Raila in Marxist Ideology. According to the head of the program, Raila was a poor student, who could not grasp basic communist ideologies. He took longer than others. He was also disorganized and disruptive, never kept time, and a raging alcoholic, who loved smoking marijuana. He could not keep friends, but his fellow African students tolerated him because of his status, and he could procure Eastern European prostitutes for them, for a small price. While he took longer than others in learning Communist Ideology, what set him apart from the rest is that he actually believed in it. He excelled in the theory of political deception, mobilizing and the art of political brinkmanship by using violence to achieve communist goals. His instructors were impressed by the results, that one of them jotted a footnote on the bottom of his file indicating that he had been turned into a valuable asset,- a useful idiot. It would not be long after his return home that Raila‟s training in violence actualized. His rap sheet is long that we were able to squeeze his chequered violence related activities below; The 1982 Coup which he is proud of, together with Kenya Air Force officers, belonging to his Luo ethnic tribe. The Mwakenya movement that was financed by late Libyan Dictator Muammar Gadaffi and a network of his close associates, targeting university students to cause political violence with the targeted aim of regime change.(He accomplished all this while
in detention) The 1992 Ford Kenya national delegates‟ conference at the Nairobi City stadium where Raila stormed his father‟s meeting with hired thugs from the poor East lands suburb of Nairobi, pulling down the perimeter fence. His father Jaramogi admonished him by publicly telling him in Swahili „AMOLO HUNA ADABU? KIMYA MARA MOJA, PAMOJA NA HAO VIJANA WAKO WAKORA‟. The 1995 Ford Kenya elections at the Thika stadium where his hired youth wingers disrupted the elections, causing violence and injury to Arch Bishop Manasses Kuria, and roughed up then Ford Kenya first Vice Chairman Michael Wamalwa, that resulted in the breakup of that party. The 2007 post-election violence Raila, funded by billionaire Philanthropist George Soros, where a militia orchestrated the violence in Kibera and Mathare on the day President Kibaki was inaugurated. Raila lit the spark in Kibera and Mathare that led to the worst political and electoral crisis in post independent Kenya since the coup he funded and organized in 1982. The 2013 and 2017 ODM elections primaries where his hired men in black thugs disrupted both primaries to ensure his handpicked political candidates carried the day. In the 2017 post-election violence, Raila Odinga paid the thugs in Kibera and Mathare slums in Nairobi, and Kondele market in Kisumu and parts of Siaya and Migori counties, to cause mayhem, when thugs in his payroll, complete with Kenyan Security official camouflage uniform unleashed terror and mayhem on innocent civilians, so he could turn it on the government. The situation could have degenerated were it not for a phone call from former US President Barack Obama warning Raila that he would be held personally responsible if the violence escalated. With the court verdict in his favor, Raila has been given a new lease of political life. Raila‟s training in political brinksmanship will result in his demand for electoral body‟s personnel shake up. The period preceding the election rerun will cast a long dark cloud on the Republic of Kenya, causing economic and political turmoil on the East African nation. Raila will exploit all legal and illegal provisions in the constitution to ensure no election is held. He does not have the numbers and knows he will lose. Expect protracted legal battles and political mass action to precipitate a constitutional crisis. Raila is not interested in any election. Any political stalement favors him. Mr. Odinga and his pay master George Soros realized that wide spread political violence cannot occur in Kenya, like he has been financing in the DR Congo. Mr. Soros will continue to fund Mr. Odinga through legal firms in Kenya associated with his subversive activities. President Kenyatta will have to walk a tight rope to rein him in while not appearing to act like an African strong man dictator. This will require utmost political and social skills set. One thing for sure is Raila will push him to the end. To neutralize Raila, the Uhuru camp needs to move to court to demand Raila‟s education credentials. In fact, the bone of contention between Mr. Odinga and former Vice President Michael Wamalwa, was the latter accusing Raila of being illiterate and embellishing about his educational achievements. Raila‟s education background is highly decorated but it IS emerging that the former Prime Minister did not go past certificate level education. Looking at his education background, this is what you see: 1965-1969-MSc, Mechanical Engineering (Production Technology), Magdeburg (now Otto von Guericke University), GDR. This is highly unlikely because the Technical University Magdeburg was a teacher training college and a medical school that was absorbed into the university when it was created in 1993. The school did not have Mechanical Engineering faculty, unless Mr. Odinga graduated after 1993, when the University began offering this faculty. 1962-1965- Certificate of Higher Education, Herder Institute, Leipzig, German Democratic Republic, with Competence in German Language 1961-1962-Maranda High School, Bondo, Kenya 1953-1960- Maranda Primary School, Bondo, Kenya, Certificate of Primary Education 1952-1953- Khomulo Primary School, Kisumu, Kenya But his file with the East Germans indicated that he only attained a certificate in higher education for German language which he studied at the Herder Institute. According to one former Stasi agent Raila confessed to him that he never graduated grade school. “Raila never graduated from Maranda due to poor grades. He told me he held the record of repeating several classes there, becoming the oldest student before finally quitting”. He was the first African to study abroad without scholarship at a time when even his own father was securing scholarships for intelligent Africans e.g. Dr.Munyua Waiyaki, Dr.Odongo Omamo, etc. Raila‟s POOR grades didn‟t qualify him for scholarships. He does not have a real degree e.g. Masters or Bachelors. Again, Wamalwa challenged him on this but he could not provide his graduation credentials as evidence of his successful education. Mr. Odinga has a few honorary degrees from learning institutions in Africa and Asia. (Honorary Degrees are normally conferred to individuals without post-secondary education). At the University of Nairobi, he is RUMOURED to have been an Assistant Lecturer (nobody knows how he got it without a degree), who didn‟t teach students, after they complained and questioned his teaching abilities. His movement was restricted to the labs, after which he was fired by Prof R. Jones, Dean of the Engineering School, following the advice of Prof. W. B. Palmer, the head of the Mechanical Engineering Department.
Raila Odinga used to promote rumors that he studied Nuclear Engineering. Then he started saying that it was mechanical when cornered to explain how he started the East African Spectra, the Odinga family owned flagship gas cylinder enterprise. The information from the East Germany reveals a trail of funds from the Soviet Union to bank accounts in the name of Jaramogi Odinga‟s Luo Thrift Union around the same time the company started its operations. Mr. Odinga is a man who loves to pick up political brawls. He will not blink an eye, if Kenya tips over the precipice. For him, it‟s a price that has to be paid to secure political accommodation in the next government. Mr. Odinga‟s last stand, after all has failed, will be the bizarre reenactment of his erstwhile friend, and fellow opposition benchwarmer‟s actions, Dr. Kizza Besigye, of neighboring country Uganda. Mr. Odinga will stage his own swearing in ceremony, most likely in the western city of Kisumu, conducted by senior high court judges from his ethnic Luo tribe, sympathetic to his cause. This will put him and his supporters into direct confrontation with the government, setting the stage for a bloody upheaval. The ball is now squarely on President Kenyatta, and his government and how he will navigate this treacherous political current that have been stirred by Raila Odinga, and, partly by himself. Together with the international observers, they pushed Mr. Odinga to court, without any foresight that he could get the result he wanted. They helped create the mess the country finds itself, and it will be the President who leads the way out of this terrible political morass. Kenya is now on the edge of a precipice.